Lexi at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Lexi

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Chițu

16th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Wunsch (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

David Chirulescu

27th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Kiene (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Goele Nuyts (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Paul Beese (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.62
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.86
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marc Paulsen

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sayan Srour (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Werner Maier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hamish Dean

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Payne (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Worrall (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefan Fohs

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.99
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Felix Ebert

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Janine Walter

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Joergensen (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.