Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yorgos Samaras

5th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Janine Walter (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 84:16

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 64:36

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Emad Kashy

26th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Briar) - Expected: 84:16

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Chițu (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Niklas Wunsch (Rhinar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.13
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxime Forest

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Fohs (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Briar) - Expected: 84:16

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Reuter (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Emlyn Ingram

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Koch (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.