Oscilio at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Oscilio

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Florian Vanbrakel

1st • 10-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Forest (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.19
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R10	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.80
R11	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brodie Spurlock

2nd • 9-2-0

100%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Payne (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.29
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sammy Weckx

3rd • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Timo Cullmann (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.03
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Clements

5th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Moulin (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paul Beese

21st • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Romain Lambert (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Chirulescu (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.26
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Dylan Thompson

22nd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Łukasz Schok (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bernd Nielsen (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Franz Sawertal (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andreas Reuter (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Matthias Verbeeck

25th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Reuter (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Holden (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tom Escoffier

29th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Reuter (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Thomas Valin

65th • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Goele Nuyts (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Emmi Pelkonen

68th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Hightower (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Graß (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Kiene (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Steffen Gursinsky (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski

78th • 1-7-0

88%

Meta

-3.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Buda (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Kiene (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Derek Patterson (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michał Biernacki

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

André Kofmel

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Damien Mironoff (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tor Vorren (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Goele Nuyts (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Patrick Kaiser

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Franz Sawertal (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Damien Mironoff (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary White

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Bisschops (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vitalik Steckis (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs André Kofmel (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Mark Henderson

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs André Kofmel (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Sander Neeft

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Thiriet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Maxime Claveau

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Smith (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Michael de Kok

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Beese (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Derek Patterson (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Vincent Weinzierl

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Juan Victor Echeverria

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Fohs (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dennis Hahn

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Werner Maier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Savinien Castel

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.