Chane at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Chane

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ognjen Marinkovic

5th • 8-1-0

56%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vitalik Steckis (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Tom Tydecks

15th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Quinn Aurich (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Felix Ebert (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Kacper Sobieszczuk

60th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ricardo Manrique (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Corey Cruickshank (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.