Olympia at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Olympia

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mariusz Suchanecki

9th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Chirulescu (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefan Karlsson

20th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Will Melyn (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Smith (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ricardo Manrique

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Reling (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tino Mille

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Will Melyn

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs René K (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.