Fai at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Fai

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Toni Schwarze

10th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Timo Cullmann (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.34
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Daniel Mulato

12th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steffen Gursinsky (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Łukasz Schok (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Janine Walter (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Romain Lambert (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.21
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Matthew Duggan

30th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Holden (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paul Beese (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Arne Walter (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.81
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Diana Triebnig

61st • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs cory macewan (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.28
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Mara Graß

75th • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Arnold Baars (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Steffen Gursinsky (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bernd Nielsen (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R8	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Eliassen

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Leonel Samayoa (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christian Bach (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Bach

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Hightower (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.54
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bernd Nielsen

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Smith (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Damien Mironoff (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mara Graß (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.96
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tor Vorren

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mawe-Rick Kaiser (Unknown)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dromai) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs André Kofmel (Oscilio) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mathis Reteuna

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Reling (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bidinger Mikael

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.