Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2026 - Italy
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
80%
Meta
+3.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Stefano Aloisi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniele Milani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
5th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Davide Rizzi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tiziano Biagetti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniele Milani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39
Round 9: Win vs Evan Goretti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Diego Paoletti (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Francesco Motta (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Win vs Otman Soumane (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
22nd • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luca McClure (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Edoardo Cattaneo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicola Pellegrinelli (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Round 9: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 10: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
44th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco Zappaterra (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Ceglie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
15:85
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Luca Rubinato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Loss vs Luca McClure (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rosario La Canea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Simone Sieli (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Massimiliano Messina (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Forked Continuum | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Stefano Galli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.