Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2026

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luca Rubinato

37th • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edoardo La Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gaetano Ferrara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.98
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.61

Leonardo Ceglie

31st • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simone Sieli (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gaetano Ferrara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.87
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.38

Francesco Forghieri

39th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luca Capoccioni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tiziano Biagetti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrea Pizzetti (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michele Calise (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.44
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.60
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Andrea Malpassi

25th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Claudio Paradiso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Tosi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Leonardo Ceglie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.80
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Evan Goretti

23rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs piero scheriani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Andrea Mengucci

28th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Carrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs piero scheriani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Alex Vioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Emanuele Tozzi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.87
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.79
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rosario La Canea

67th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ENRICO BORTOLOTTI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuele Damiani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Albani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michele Calise (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Giuseppe Lucci (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.43
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Tiziano Suran

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniele Frizzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.29
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Ronchi

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szymon Biesiekierski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicola Pellegrinelli (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niccolò Borghi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs piero scheriani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs angelo pastore (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Otman Soumane

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefano Galli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matteo Megera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefano Galli

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Otman Soumane (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Parisotto (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Ridolfi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.21
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Angelo Zaccardi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simone Busatto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Francesco Fiumanò

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Ceglie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommaso Ariatti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.