Dash I/O at National Championship 2026 - Italy

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michele Calise

55th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Parisotto (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Davide Colonna (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rosario La Canea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.91
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.52

Domenico Patera

68th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Salice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.27

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Buoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Vioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.