Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2026

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Giulio Monaco

32nd • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edoardo Cattaneo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 10:90

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frizzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Federico Chiarel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.64
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.86
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.75

Stefano Meoni

19th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuele Tozzi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michele Calise (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alessandro Carrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tiziano Biagetti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matteo Favretto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Win	✗	0.80	2.65
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.57
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.14

Simone Pagani

41st • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Fattori (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Bigagli (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luca Rubinato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Leonardo Ceglie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

"Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Tosi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Goretti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.