Fai, Rising Rebellion
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
71st • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Albani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Vioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simone Sieli (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
52nd • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Fattori (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Round 8: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Calderone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marco Zappaterra (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Riccardo Rotondo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Fattori (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.