Vynnset, Iron Maiden
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
4.5
Surp
5.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Salvatore Valenti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Evan Goretti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 9: Win vs Matteo Favretto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
5th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs angelo pastore (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs piero scheriani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Win vs Gaetano Ferrara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
35th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Piero Carini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emanuele Damiani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matteo Megera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matteo Favretto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs angelo pastore (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 75:25
Round 4: Win vs Daniele Bigagli (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Niccolò Borghi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.