Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2026 - Italy

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

27th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Davide Rizzi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Otman Soumane (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lorenzo Calderone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

90:10

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gaetano Ferrara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 88:12

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.60
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.21
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.25
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Andrea Caregnato

50th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 88:12

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs riccardo battaglia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

Valda, Seismic Impact

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edoardo Cattaneo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

Dash I/O

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Domenico Patera (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

Valda, Seismic Impact

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.03
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.07
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.20
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Niccolò Borghi

26th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Ronchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Antonio Briola (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tommaso Ariatti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.81
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Aloisi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 61:39

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matteo Fattori (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 67:33

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.