Valda, Seismic Impact at National Championship 2026

Valda, Seismic Impact

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Edoardo Cattaneo

51st • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.7

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 90:10

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Favretto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Davide Giacca (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luca Capoccioni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.02
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.45
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.82
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Lorenzo Latino

56th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niccolò Borghi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luca McClure (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Simone Busatto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.75
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.21

Pierantonio Ostuni

62nd • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Albani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.