National Championship 2026 - Italy - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fabrizio Cenacchi

45th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piero Carini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gianluca Razza (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pierantonio Ostuni (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Edoardo La Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.04
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Andrea Nicastro

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Szymon Biesiekierski

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Ronchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs angelo pastore (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Salvatore Valenti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Riccardo Rotondo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.