National Championship 2026 - Italy - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniele Milani

5th • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs ENRICO BORTOLOTTI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Vioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs riccardo battaglia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.69
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.27
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Lorenzo Miele

9th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marco Zappaterra (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matteo Favretto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.58
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tommaso Ariatti

13th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Federico Fusaro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Niccolò Borghi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.68
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.88

Edoardo La Rosa

24th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Briola (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luca Rubinato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.10
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tommaso Viscido

14th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Salvatore Valenti (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Motta (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Federico Fusaro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs riccardo battaglia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.04
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

20th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs riccardo battaglia (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.18
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.16
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Claudio Paradiso

53rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simone Busatto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rosario La Canea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.23

Matteo Brunori

72nd • 1-5-1

57%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luca McClure (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Marco Zappaterra (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Federico Chiarel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Piero Carini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Domenico Patera (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Draw	✓	0.86	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.16
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Davide Giacca

dropped • 0-6-0

83%

Meta

-3.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emanuele Tozzi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Federico Fusaro (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Manferdini (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Edoardo Cattaneo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.