National Championship 2026 - Australia - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sam Sutherland

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Dale (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Griffin Armitage (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.02
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jackson CASANOVA

5th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tom Dagan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.80
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	2.41
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Louis Shum

5th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Thomas Dowling

30th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Palmer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Jones (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jonathan Khoo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.93
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.48
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Tristan Sampson

36th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.36
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.16

Nathan Lucev

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Malek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Butcher (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Chris Palmer

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Em Suckling

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Faron Swingler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Steven Young

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Kindl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.