National Championship 2026 - Australia - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Freeman Monika

11th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Ranasinghe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Fanning (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kael Sabben (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.86
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

James Lewis

13th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.36
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kuan Li

15th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.81
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.81

Jacob Hyde

58th • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Khoo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Quigley (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Palmer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Brandon Rashad

60th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Bingemann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Liu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Robert Hall

62nd • 0-7-0

86%

Meta

-3.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ronan Devlin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary Manttan

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Faron Swingler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Jones (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Ethan Martin

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Euan Ansell

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David House (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Matt Nguyen

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Herzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Cantwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Samuel Thomson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Andreas Andronicou

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Farren (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Yousef Mnahy

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Palmer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Tyshing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.