National Championship 2026 - Australia - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ruairidh Wasson

38th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Hu (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Justin Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.23
R9	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Justin Lim

43rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Claire Grant (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Farren (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Qi

53rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Wilson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brett Curtain (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs German Glukhov (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R10	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.05

Jalen Williams Max

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.82
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

logan boyd

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Levi Gott (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.