National Championship 2026 - Australia - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ronan Devlin

54th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tom Dagan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.24
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.34
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.21
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.39

Andrea Dentale

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Claire Grant (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Drummond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Daniel Jones

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jalen Williams Max (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.07
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.