Fai, Rising Rebellion
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.8
Surp
5.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Thomson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Win vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Round 11: Win vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
18th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Steven Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
37th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Calvin Yu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Khoo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Daniel Fanning (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
40th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
5.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Sharpe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matt Quigley (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Win vs Kairi Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kael Sabben (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Calvin Yu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
51st • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ronan Devlin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ethan Martin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
42nd • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Liam Herzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
Round 2: Win vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Jarmyn (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Tyshing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew O'Grady (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs German Glukhov (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.