National Championship 2026 - Australia - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andy Pham

1st • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.1

Surp

7.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jalen Williams Max (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David House (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Calvin Yu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	10%	Win	✗	0.89	1.30
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.54
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13
R11	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.88
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.97
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.30

Tom Nguyen

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Farren (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Martin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Taine Markley

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kairi Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 11:89

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.