National Championship 2026 - Australia - Zyggy Starlight (CC)

Zyggy Starlight

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zachary Gardiner

16th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene Beissel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Cantwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jalen Williams Max (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kael Sabben (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.26

Fahad Rahman

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Drummond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.65
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.82

Alexander Van Daalen

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Tyshing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Faron Swingler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.91
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Daniel Johnson : )

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taine Markley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Nick Butcher

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oscar Richichi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Drummond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.