National Championship 2026 - Australia - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jake mccormack

9th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Griffin Armitage (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.72
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.22
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

German Glukhov

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Liu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eugene Beissel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.11
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.76
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jacob Eid

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brett Curtain (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Vinh Luong

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Fanning (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Ranasinghe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Jaii Nestler

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.