National Championship 2026 - Australia - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cody Gebert

3rd • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs German Glukhov (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 88:12

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hayden Dale (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.04
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.43
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.11
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.52
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

James Drummond

19th • 6-1-0

43%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

6.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fahad Rahman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Butcher (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs John Farren (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.21
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.67
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.48
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.18

Hayden Dale

10th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.12
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.08
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Spencer Horton

28th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Calvin Yu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Zac Whyte

32nd • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David House (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.35
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.60
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Alister Ling

55th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Martin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.49
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20

Ian Zhong

48th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Em Suckling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David House (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ronan Devlin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.53
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.07
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Naomi Wang

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Robert Piper

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Ryan Hill

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Declan Bradley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eugene Beissel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Tyshing

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Van Daalen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Jonas Ryen

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David House (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 88:12

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.19

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.