National Championship 2026 - Australia - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Clark

2nd • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Levi Gott (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.30
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.24
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.22
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emma Hollingsworth

31st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Wilson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eugene Beissel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.14
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.16
R9	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.84
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tom Bradford

35th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Butcher (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kairi Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Sharpe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs James Drummond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.55

David House

46th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Zhong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs John Farren (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.99
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

David Huang

47th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Hu (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Martin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.24
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Troy Wilson

50th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Bingemann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs James MacDonald (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.10
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Daniel Fanning

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.74
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Regen Cairns

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Palmer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Sharpe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Matthew Ta

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.62
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Oscar Richichi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Armitage (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.