Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Martin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric Hu (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Justin Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
29th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Billy Docherty (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Billy Docherty (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Claire Grant (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Thompson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.