National Championship 2026 - Australia - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Madeline Southwood

23rd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brett Curtain (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.96
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.93

Rhys McMillan

26th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Madeline Southwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Declan Bradley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.66
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Ryan Taylor

61st • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Faron Swingler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.95
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.21
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.34

Andrew Marr

dropped • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Pham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Declan Bradley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Herzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs James Drummond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.28
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-

Samuel Coffey

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brett Curtain (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendan Champion (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kairi Thompson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taine Markley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Patrick Sharpe

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.