Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 坂上 俊輔 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 15:85
Round 3: Win vs 佐藤 宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 司忠 甲地 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gary Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Pang Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Bart Horré (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 8: Win vs Darren Goh (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Iada Caio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 15% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-1
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 15:85
Round 2: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Cristerson Chee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Wai Lum Choong (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Deborah Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gustavo Vacilotto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Diego Souza (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yoshihiko Kato (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marklin Spencer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 6: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs James Lewis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 憲佑 佐藤 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Bergesen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marie Watson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Gubbins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Takatoshi Sato (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yohei Mori (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kentaro Hase (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Björn DHOOGHE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fabricio Talmas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.