Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 7-4-0
18%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs EIKI SUGAI (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nghia Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Keith Ang (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Iada Caio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs lucas gomes pacheco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 10: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
18% (2/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ko Sato (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Gubbins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Connor Leverton (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Xingyu ZHOU (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-5-0
44%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Natthaphon Kasemphonchotinan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Wise (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs HyoungJun You (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Chun On Anson Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robby Ramasaputra (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Teo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Samuel Cho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
Round 7: Win vs Yuma Ishikura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jason Chua (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-1
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Ismael Boulbaz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Josue Murillo Leon (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs ayumi kobayashi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Draw |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Motoyoshi Bambara (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Wise (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Lindley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Ugioni (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Szura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.