Puffin, Hightail
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-4-0
11%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Trinh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Riley Lont (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nabil Nur Aiman Bin Jasman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Richie Britton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chan Lion (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs YE MINSHENG (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sam Yuen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-7-0
44%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs zen tani (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Drabusenigg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
Round 4: Loss vs Luis Gustavo Lobo Rodriguez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Shine Wong cm (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tabitha Boon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 直人 三田 (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kainuma Daisuke (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs arnaud rey (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Didde-Esteban (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Danilo Maeda dos Santos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kei Igarashi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 22:78
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Robert Szura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-1
29%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs shoji shoji (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tabitha Boon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hajime Okada (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.