Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

53 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Buddensiek

1st • 10-1-0

73%

Meta

+4.9

Perf

5.9

Surp

6.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Codi Barnett (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.28
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.25
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.77
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Alexander Vore

5th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Logan Barnes (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cole Craig (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.35
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jo Burch

12th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Hoss (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Dage (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Ross Fontana

17th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Rollyson (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kirby Hill (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Iaali

19th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Garrison (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Roberto Brasile (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Michael Feng

23rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Timothy Long

24th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Garrison (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Sullivan (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Battles (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Randy Davis

25th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.26
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Charlie Manning

28th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Douglas Jones (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Skylar Kilgore (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Trent Williams

29th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lauren Simpson (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs charles singleton (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Timothy Scroggs

30th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs BEN LADWIG (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs William Snead (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Tho Bui

39th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Ward (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.28

Alexander Heger

43rd • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Allen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Trey Herring

48th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andre Francis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Ikwal Hira

50th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Troy Bowden (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Jayson Jacks

52nd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Franklin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Dakota Cook

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Ward (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Maxwell Martrich

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Battles (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

David Lee

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Guinn (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jacob Johnson

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Slayton (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Guinn (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Roberto Brasile (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Wray (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.09
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael Allen

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle James (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Gibbs (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Carmack (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.15
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Skylar Kilgore

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Logan Barnes (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Snead

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Chall (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Douglas Jones (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

NICOLE HEENAN

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hannah Watts (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zackary Young (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Nicholas Ward

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adrian Gebhart

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jennifer Hickman (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Tyler Battles

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs charles singleton (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Wray (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.81
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan Blakely

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Garrison (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aurelio Arcabascio (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Allen Towery (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.62
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Ryan Wallace

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Sullivan (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cameron Gumm (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Shawn Walker

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Garrison (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

William Garrison

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Logan Blakely (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zach Salada (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jennifer Hickman

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Spiars (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Casey Walker

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Lindley (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Ward (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Bethany Romans

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Ryan Majeski

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Lindley (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Gill (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Ryan Valentino

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan Barnes (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Hickman III (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Zeni Ragsdale

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Hickman III (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kyle James

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Allen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Guinn (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Samuel Dage

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Alex Lindley

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Towery (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Majeski (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andre Francis

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Trey Herring (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aurelio Arcabascio

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs charles singleton (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan Blakely (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hayden Christoffersen

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Johnathan Esquivel

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cameron Gumm

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Carmack (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Chall

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Snead (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Millwee (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jeremiah Gardner

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Dage (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Justin Slayton

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zackary Young (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Booher

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Nathan Vargas

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Sam Andersen

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Troy Bowden

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ikwal Hira (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.