Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Barding

3rd • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben DeLange (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Gibbs (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Snead (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.25
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.29
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.37
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Hans Schubert

10th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Skylar Kilgore (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charlie Manning (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Long (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

John Milner

11th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs BEN LADWIG (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Trey Herring (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.73
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.91

Cody Williams

22nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zavier Bowden (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ikwal Hira (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Jeffrey Rybak

31st • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jason Sullivan (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Logan Blakely (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.73
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.18
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Viola Sun

36th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Logan Blakely (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ikwal Hira (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Trey Herring (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Witt Lucas

38th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Spiars (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Aaron Franklin

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zach Salada (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ryan Jarvis

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Majeski (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Ward (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Franklin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hannah Watts (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Hannah Watts

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ben DeLange (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Valentino (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Allen Towery

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lindley (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Blakely (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Tader Kammeyer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs BEN LADWIG (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Majeski (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.