Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE)

Ira, Crimson Haze

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

William Bradshaw

2nd • 8-3-0

91%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.75
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Andrew Wilborn

3rd • 9-1-0

80%

Meta

+4.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Marshall (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Casey Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.40
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Aaron Grace

5th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Devin Simms (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.88
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dyllon Dietz

9th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jason Sullivan (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.06
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.36
R8	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Daeton Harris

26th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ajay Bennington (Kavdaen, Trader of Skins) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Jones (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Kavdaen, Trader of Skins	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Shawn Edwards

40th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kirby Hill (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jo Burch (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Cole Craig (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Aaron Cassel

45th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs marcellus hunter (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Battles (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hannah Watts (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jennifer Hickman (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Allen (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Will Matthews

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shawn Walker (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bethany Romans (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Skylar Kilgore (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Sebastiano Cavallo

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dantes Ha (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Gill (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.04
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.