Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Logan Duplessis

5th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Manning (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

95:5

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 94:6

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.32
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.07
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Kaileb Shipman

15th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Booher (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Carmack (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 94:6

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.05
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.33
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Jesse Hudak

18th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

4.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andre Francis (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Lexi) - Expected: 86:14

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs charles singleton (Rhinar) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.33
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Win	✗	0.89	2.81
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Dantes Ha

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Webb (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Jesse Carmack

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cameron Gumm (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Allen (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Roberto Brasile (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Luis Cisneros

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lauren Simpson (Dash) - Expected: 94:6

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Devin Simms (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.