Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Dorinthea (SAGE)

Dorinthea

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim Hickman

34th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bethany Romans (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Trey Herring (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 83:17

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11, favorite upset

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Loss	✓	0.89	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.32

Kyle Proctor

56th • 2-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Ward (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Hickman III (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ajay Bennington (Kavdaen, Trader of Skins) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kavdaen, Trader of Skins	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tim Lee

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.