Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pat Eshghy

21st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Witt Lucas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Allen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cole Craig

37th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Spiars (Nuu) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Gill (Dash) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tayler Allen (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Dash	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.33
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Diana Green

51st • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash) - Expected: 90:10

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Trey Herring (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dash	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Tristan Del Pako

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dennis Guinn

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle James (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Hoss (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan McNeely

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.