Florian at Showdown: Memphis 2026

Florian

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Badillo

5th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Gill (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nick Webb (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Logan King

33rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cole Craig (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Roberto Brasile

35th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zach Salada (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Carmack (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.97

Tayler Allen

46th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jennifer Hickman (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dantes Ha (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cole Craig (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Nick Webb

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lauren Simpson (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dantes Ha (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phillip Millwee

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Skylar Kilgore (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Chall (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Ben DeLange

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.