Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Windham

49th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Logan Barnes (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Carmack (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Landon Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Roberto Brasile (Florian) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.31
R8	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Andrew Clayton

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Andersen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dantes Ha (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Viola Sun (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Charles Castille

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Gibbs (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

marcellus hunter

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Cassel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.