Briar at Showdown: Memphis 2026

Briar

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gil Beloate

20th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zach Salada (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle James (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Roberto Brasile (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Randy Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Landon Simmons

54th • 3-4-1

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thao Lopez (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Phillip Millwee (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ajay Bennington (Kavdaen, Trader of Skins) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ikwal Hira (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Kavdaen, Trader of Skins	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Zavier Bowden

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.