Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joel Grizzelle

44th • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zavier Bowden (Briar) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

95:5

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs AUSTIN BAYNES (Dromai) - Expected: 95:5

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Lee (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.72
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.04
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Sean Soderman

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Dage (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

charles singleton

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Battles (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aurelio Arcabascio (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs BEN LADWIG (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.