Showdown: Memphis 2026 - Dash (SAGE)

Dash

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Lau

14th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ikwal Hira (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

5:95

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 6:94

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Mel Falcon

41st • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Windham (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Codi Barnett (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.09
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Eugene C

47th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Martini (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Allen Towery (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Zackary Young (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	15%	Win	✗	0.84	1.00
R4	Silver Age	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Nathan Crawford

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Will Matthews (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oldhim) - Expected: 6:94

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Zackary Young

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Slayton (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Kano) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eugene C (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Gill

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Hickman III (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cole Craig (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 10:90

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Majeski (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Kevin Lindenmayer

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aurelio Arcabascio (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 10:90

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daeton Harris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.08
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Lauren Simpson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Webb (Florian) - Expected: 41:59

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Oldhim) - Expected: 6:94

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-

Stephen Rollyson

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Kayo) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.