Bravo, Flattering Showman at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Bravo, Flattering Showman

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Amanda Sullender

2nd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs james Hohn (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Logan King

11th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brittany Isaacson (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Caleb Engen

16th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Donald Stevenson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Arlo Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Luke Putz

18th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eli Cook (Lexi) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.88
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tristan Del Pako

25th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Catherine Levine (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tristan Schmidt

26th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Pat Eshghy

29th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arlo Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.10
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Neet

30th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs james Hoenstine (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nate Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Devon Killebrew

32nd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ronald Gonzalez (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Donald Stevenson

43rd • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: 89:11

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

carolina alvarado

49th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sean Davitt (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josh Lind

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Fraser (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Doll (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyson Au

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Jennings (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Gwen Woods

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Wood (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Doll (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Adam Saiewitz

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nate Davis (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Sarraf (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Fraser

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Michael Lyon

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.