Lexi at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Lexi

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eli Cook

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Hall ()

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 37:63

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Chang (Azalea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.29
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Steven Leyva

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs sean Burke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Joe Ellis

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mac Caldwell

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.