Ira, Crimson Haze at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Ira, Crimson Haze

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Patrick R

3rd • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.3

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Haynes ()

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs sean Burke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.09
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Tommy Buljan

12th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.96
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Suryan Bhatia

13th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andy Tompkins ()

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Lee Kimball

14th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Elspeth Fisher (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.96
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Elton Zhen

21st • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Jaszczur ()

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Scott Khuu (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.27
R8	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Devon Drury

22nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mac Caldwell (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evan Brook (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.12
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Myles Rightmire

38th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zach Benton (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andrew Mendelsohn

44th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ronald Gonzalez (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs sean Burke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Will Stubbs

56th • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs francisco guerrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Quiroga (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.35

Matthew Rawlings

57th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Marion (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brittany Isaacson (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

shawn rothwell

58th • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Steven Leyva (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R7	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nick Yaksich

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyson Au (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.25
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Weinberg

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Marion (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daniel Wood

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gwen Woods (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Chang (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brittany Isaacson (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Teriki Soliai

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Doll (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Elspeth Fisher (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.09
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tabitha Stehman

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Sarraf (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Abby Cwiertak

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.