Chane at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Chane

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jude Cornett

5th • 8-0-0

38%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Andrew Rothermel

1st • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Evan Herndon (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Elspeth Fisher (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Dexter Simmons

27th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Raj Giri

31st • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Pearse (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven Leyva (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs james Hohn (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bird Cabrera

36th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Hembroff

50th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Blake Freeman

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zach Benton (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

John Zapata

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Davitt (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Joe Canton Encarnacion

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ronald Gonzalez (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

William Bradshaw

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zach Benton (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ronald Gonzalez (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Derek Chiu

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs james Hoenstine (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs james Hohn (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

John Paul Kilcrease

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Abby Cwiertak (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.