Fai at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Fai

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carson Allen

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Donath ()

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nik Burns (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ethan Doll

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Kavdaen, Trader of Skins) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gwen Woods (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kavdaen, Trader of Skins	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.11
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kaden Schoonover

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Brandon (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gwen Woods (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Arlo Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Jennings (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Mark Brandon

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.