Azalea at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Azalea

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fio Aleksandra

10th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raul Quiroga (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tyson Au (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.48

Kevin Winther

35th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gwen Woods (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brittany Isaacson (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: 67:33

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R7	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sean Duncan

47th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mark Brandon (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nickolas wells (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.11
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.27

Francis Shigley

62nd • 1-7-0

62%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Arlo Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None ()

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jack Martin

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 22:78

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Catherine Levine (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Oldhim) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Doll (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Brittany Isaacson

dropped • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Wood (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Daniel Chang

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Wood (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eli Cook (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.44
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.89
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Raul Quiroga

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.11
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arthur Mills

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Haynes ()

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.