Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

AUSTIN BRILL

5th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Tyler Winther

19th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Evan Brook (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Noah Beygelman

23rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.80
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Travis Spicer

37th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eli Cook (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Aiden Shigley

53rd • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Villalobos ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Scott Khuu

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.25
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Ayden Dukeshier

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lyon (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evan Herndon (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Luke Manship

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ronald Gonzalez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Chang (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Marion (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Teriki Soliai (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.