Oldhim at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Oldhim

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

AUSTIN BRILL

5th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tyler Winther

19th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Evan Brook (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

5:95

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Noah Beygelman

23rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick R (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Drury (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Travis Spicer

37th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eli Cook (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Loss	✓	0.93	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aiden Shigley

53rd • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Villalobos ()

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Durham (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Scott Khuu

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emry Kinney (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Ayden Dukeshier

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lyon (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evan Herndon (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Luke Manship

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ronald Gonzalez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Chang (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Marion (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Teriki Soliai (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.