Aurora
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
45th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
R1
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
25:75
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Dromai) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55
R6
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Win vs Francis Shigley (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Loss vs Donald Stevenson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55
R8
R8 SAGE
Round 8: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Chane | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.